Talking Points
- EU Policymakers’ Comments in Focus Before ECB Rate Announcement
- Dollar May Rise if Stronger ISM Print Weighs Against Fed QE3 Outlook
- Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Signals No Hurry to Resume Rate Cuts
A quiet economic data calendar in Europe will shift the spotlight to the speaking docket. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is scheduled to speak in Brussels while EU PresidentHerman Van Rompuy meets Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italy’s Premier Mario Monti sits down with French President Francois Hollande. Traders will monitor regional leaders’ remarks for clues about the possibility that the ECB is preparing to unveil details of its highly anticipated bond-buying scheme at this week’s policy announcement. Signs of progress on this front may help to boost the Euroin the near term, although ultimately the ECB seems likely to disappoint this time around.
The spotlight then turns to the ISM Manufacturing report, which is expected to show the US factory sector held up in August after activity contracted in the preceding two months. Markets are likely to interpret the result through the prism of Fed stimulus expectations after Ben Bernanke was seen as giving a nod to QE3 at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. The Chairman didn’t give explicit guidance but laid out a case for the benefits of nonstandard policy and stressed the importance of achieving “further progress” on economic growth and job creation, adding that the Fed will provide additional help “as needed”. With that in mind, an upside surprise may weigh on risk appetite while boosting the US Dollar as hopes for accommodation fade, and vice versa.
The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade after the RBA opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50 percent as expected. Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated familiar rhetoric in the statement accompanying the announcement, saying that “the stance of monetary policy remain[s]appropriate” at below-average levels given a subdued international outlook despite growth tracking close to trend and inflation close to target. The remarks suggested the RBA remained in wait-and-see mode, with policymakers in no hurry to resume interest rate cuts.
Asia Session: What Happened
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
ACT
|
EXP
|
PREV
|
23:01
|
GBP
|
BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)
|
-0.4%
|
-0.5%
|
0.1%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG)
|
6.5%
|
-
|
8.6%
|
1:00
|
NZD
|
ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)
|
0.5%
|
-
|
-0.4% (R+)
|
1:30
|
JPY
|
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)
|
-1.2%
|
-0.5%
|
-0.4% (R+)
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
Current Account Balance (A$) (2Q)
|
-11.8B
|
-12.2B
|
-12.9B (R+)
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
Net Exports of GDP (2Q)
|
0.3%
|
0.6%
|
-0.5%
|
4:30
|
AUD
|
RBA Interest Rate Decision (SEP 4)
|
3.50%
|
3.50%
|
3.50%
|
Euro Session: What to Expect
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
EXP/ACT
|
PREV
|
IMPACT
|
5:45
|
CHF
|
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)
|
-0.1% (A)
|
0.5%
|
Medium
|
5:45
|
CHF
|
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)
|
0.5% (A)
|
1.2%
|
Medium
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)
|
49.0 (A)
|
50.9
|
Medium
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
|
0.2%
|
-0.5%
|
Low
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
|
1.6%
|
1.8%
|
Low
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
EC Pres. Barroso Speaks in Brussels
|
-
|
-
|
Medium
|
10:30
|
EUR
|
EU Pres. Van Rompuy Meets Germany’s Merkel
|
-
|
-
|
Medium
|
13:15
|
EUR
|
France’s Hollande, Italy’s Monti Hold Press Conf.
|
-
|
-
|
Medium
|
Critical Levels
CCY
|
SUPPORT
|
RESISTANCE
|
EURUSD
|
1.2563
|
1.2641
|
GBPUSD
|
1.5858
|
1.5927
|
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