Murray Math Lines 07.09.2012 (USD/CHF, CHF /JPY, SILVER)

07.09.2012 / 11:56

Analysis for September 7^th, 2012

USD/CHF

I keep holding my sell order. The market hasn’t been able to stay above the H4 Super Trend’s line. The price may enter an “oversold zone” during Friday. The closest target is the -2/8 level, if the pair breaks it the lines at the chart will be redrawn.

The pair is moving in the lower part of the H1 chart. Yesterday the Super trends’ lines formed “bearish cross”. In the near term, the price is expected to break the -2/8 level and the lines at the chart will be redrawn.

CHF/JPY

The pair has left the trading range, in which it had been moving for quite a long time. Right now the price is above the 5/8 level, thus indicating that it may continue growing up towards the 8/8 one. The fact that the pair has rebounded from the H4 Super Trends’ line is also in favor of a possible ascending movement.

The local correction was supported by the 6/8 level and the Super Trend’s line. The pair may break the 8/8level during Friday and enter an “overbought zone”. If the price breaks the +2/8 level, the lines at the chart will be redrawn.

SILVER

Yesterday the price started the corrective movement, the bulls are supported by the 5/8 level. If the instrument rebounds from the current levels, the price may continue moving upwards. The main target is still the 8/8 level.

The correction stopped at the 6/8 level. If the price rebounds from this level and breaks the Super Trends’ lines backwards, the bulls will continue pushing the market towards new maximums. After Silver breaks the+2/8 level, the lines at the chart will be redrawn.

Wave Analysis 07.09.2012 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY)

07.09.2012 / 09:35

Analysis for September 7^th, 2012

EUR/USD

We may assume that the pair has finished a large correction [X] and at the moment the price is moving inside a new ascending trend, (double) zigzag [Y].

One of the possible scenarios implies that the price is finishing an ascending wedge (i) and we can expect a descending correction (ii).

It looks like Euro is finishing an ascending wedge (i) with diagonal triangle v of (v) of [i]. We can expect a descending correction [ii]. If the assumption is correct, one can consider opening short positions.

GBP/USD

We may assume that an ascending wave [с] of B started with wedge (i) of [c] of B.

One of the possible scenarios implies that the price is finishing an ascending wedge (i) and we can expect a descending correction (ii) of [c].

It looks like Pound is finishing an ascending wedge (i) with diagonal triangle [5] of v of (i). We can expect a descending correction (ii). If the assumption is correct, one can consider opening short positions.

USD/CHF

We may assume that the price has completed double zigzag (4), and started forming a final descending wave(5).

Another possible scenario implies that the price is finishing a descending wedge [i]. We can expect an ascending correction [ii].

It looks like the price is completing a descending wedge [i] with diagonal triangle v of (v) of [i]. We can expect an ascending correction [ii]. If the assumption is correct, one can consider opening long positions.

USD/JPY

The fact that the price is moving inside a narrow range implies that the pair is probably finishing a large and long horizontal correction [4] of V.

We may assume that a long horizontal correction [4] may be completed with horizontal triangle (E) of [4].

It looks like the price is completing a final wave (E) of [4] of triangle [4], also in the form of triangle. If it’s true, then it’s quite logical to expect the price to fall down and form a descending wave [5].

Forex Technical Analysis 2012/05/09 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD) Forecast FX

04.09.2012 / 17:42

Forecast for September 5^th, 2012

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continues moving inside the ascending channel, the price has returned to the broken side of “triangle” pattern. There is a strong support level in the area of 1.2570, we should expect Euro to start growing up. The target of the ascending movement is the area of 1.2705. If the price falls down lower than 1.2540, this scenario will be cancelled.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD currency pair is moving inside the ascending pattern, the target of the growth is the area of 1.6005. At the moment the price is expected to test the level of 1.5985, which may be a starting point of the correction towards the area of 1.5920. Pound may make a final ascending movement near the ascending channel’s lower border.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF currency pair has returned to the descending channel’s upper border, the price is expected to start falling down from the current levels. The target of the fall is the area of 0.9460. If the price grows up higher than 0.9580, this scenario will be cancelled. We recommend to increase the amount of short positions only after the price breaks the level of 0.9500.

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY currency pair is moving according to the forecast. The price has left the descending channel and now is expected to start growing up towards the area of 125.77. If the price falls down lower than 123.60, this scenario will be cancelled.

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar continues falling down a little bit. The RSI indicator is still testing the ascending trendline, we should expect the pair to start growing up from the current levels. The closest target of the growth is the descending channel’s upper border. If the price falls down lower than 1.0200, this scenario will be cancelled.

Euro Looks to EU Chatter for ECB Clues, Dollar May Rise on ISM Data

Talking Points

• EU Policymakers’ Comments in Focus Before ECB Rate Announcement
• Dollar May Rise if Stronger ISM Print Weighs Against Fed QE3 Outlook
• Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Signals No Hurry to Resume Rate Cuts

A quiet economic data calendar in Europe will shift the spotlight to the speaking docket. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is scheduled to speak in Brussels while EU PresidentHerman Van Rompuy meets Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italy’s Premier Mario Monti sits down with French President Francois Hollande. Traders will monitor regional leaders’ remarks for clues about the possibility that the ECB is preparing to unveil details of its highly anticipated bond-buying scheme at this week’s policy announcement. Signs of progress on this front may help to boost the Euroin the near term, although ultimately the ECB seems likely to disappoint this time around.

The spotlight then turns to the ISM Manufacturing report, which is expected to show the US factory sector held up in August after activity contracted in the preceding two months. Markets are likely to interpret the result through the prism of Fed stimulus expectations after Ben Bernanke was seen as giving a nod to QE3 at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. The Chairman didn’t give explicit guidance but laid out a case for the benefits of nonstandard policy and stressed the importance of achieving “further progress” on economic growth and job creation, adding that the Fed will provide additional help “as needed”. With that in mind, an upside surprise may weigh on risk appetite while boosting the US Dollar as hopes for accommodation fade, and vice versa.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade after the RBA opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50 percent as expected. Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated familiar rhetoric in the statement accompanying the announcement, saying that “the stance of monetary policy remain[s]appropriate” at below-average levels given a subdued international outlook despite growth tracking close to trend and inflation close to target. The remarks suggested the RBA remained in wait-and-see mode, with policymakers in no hurry to resume interest rate cuts.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
23:01	GBP	BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)	-0.4%	-0.5%	0.1%
23:50	JPY	Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG)	6.5%	-	8.6%
1:00	NZD	ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)	0.5%	-	-0.4% (R+)
1:30	JPY	Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)	-1.2%	-0.5%	-0.4% (R+)
1:30	AUD	Current Account Balance (A$) (2Q)	-11.8B	-12.2B	-12.9B (R+)
1:30	AUD	Net Exports of GDP (2Q)	0.3%	0.6%	-0.5%
4:30	AUD	RBA Interest Rate Decision (SEP 4)	3.50%	3.50%	3.50%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP/ACT	PREV	IMPACT
5:45	CHF	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)	-0.1% (A)	0.5%	Medium
5:45	CHF	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)	0.5% (A)	1.2%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)	49.0 (A)	50.9	Medium
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)	0.2%	-0.5%	Low
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)	1.6%	1.8%	Low
9:00	EUR	EC Pres. Barroso Speaks in Brussels	-	-	Medium
10:30	EUR	EU Pres. Van Rompuy Meets Germany’s Merkel	-	-	Medium
13:15	EUR	France’s Hollande, Italy’s Monti Hold Press Conf.	-	-	Medium

Critical Levels

CCY	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
EURUSD	1.2563	1.2641
GBPUSD	1.5858	1.5927

Murray Math Lines 03.09.2012 (USD/CHF, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY)

USD/CHF

The bears’ first attempt to enter an “oversold zone” failed. We can’t exclude a possibility that after the local correction is finished, the price may continue moving downwards. The closest target for the next several days is the -2/8 level.

At the H1 chart we can see that the price started the corrective movement form the 0/8 level. It may well be that the bears will be supported by the 3/8 level. If the market rebounds from this level, the price will continue falling down. After the price breaks the -2/8 level, the lines at the chart will be redrawn.

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY currency pair is being corrected, and this movement is supported by the daily Super Trend’s line. The price has already rebounded from the line twice. In the near term, we can expect the pair to continue growing up towards the +1/8 level.

At the H1 chart we can see that the price has been supported by the 5/8 level twice. We can’t exclude a possibility that the bears may enter an “overbought zone” on Monday. Later, they will most probably reach the +2/8 level.

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY currency pair continues consolidating near the 6/8 level. If the price rebounds from the current levels, the pair will continue growing up. The closest target for the bears is at the 8/8 level, they may reach it within the next several days.

The price is moving in the middle of the H1 chart. Several hours ago the pair rebounded from the 3/8 level. If the market keeps the price above the 5/8 level, the pair will continue growing up towards the 8/8 one.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 04.09.2012 (GBP/USD, GOLD)

GBP/USD

GBPUSD, Time Frame H4 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are under pressure of “Golden Cross” (1), both lines are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is going up, Senkou Spans A and B are moving upwards so far. Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, the price is above the indicator’s lines. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support of Tenkan-Sen and the price to stay inside the channel between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen.

GBPUSD, Time Frame Н1 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are moving towards each other above Kumo Cloud and may intersect forming “Dead Cross” (1), Tenkan-Sen is horizontal, but Kijun-Sen is directed upwards so far. Ichimoku Cloud is wide and going up (2), Senkou Spans A and B are also moving upwards. Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, the price is above the indicator’s lines. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support of Tenkan-Sen and the price to fall down towards the cloud.

GOLD

GOLD, Time Frame H4 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected above Kumo Cloud and formed “Golden Cross” (1), both lines are horizontal now. Ichimoku Cloud is going up (2), Senkou Span A is horizontal, and Senkou Span B is moving upwards. Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, the price is above the indicator’s lines. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support of Tenkan-Sen and the price to stay inside the channel between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen.

GOLD, Time Frame Н1 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are moving towards each other above Kumo Cloud after forming “Golden Cross” (1), both lines are horizontal now. Ichimoku Cloud is going up (2), Senkou Spans A and B are horizontal. Chinkou Lagging Span is very close to the chart, the price is in the channel between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect resistance of Tenkan-Sen and the price to fall down towards the cloud.

Forex Technical Analysis 2012/04/09 (EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, NZD/USD) Forecast FX

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continues moving inside the ascending channel, the price has already broken the upper border of “triangle” pattern. We should expect Euro to start growing up from the current levels. One can consider buying the pair with the tight stop below 1.2560. The final target of the growth is the area of 1.2705. We recommend to increase the amount of long positions only after the price breaks the level of 1.2650. If the price falls down lower than 1.2515, this scenario will be cancelled.

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY currency pair is moving inside the ascending pattern. One can consider buying the pair after the price leaves the descending channel. The target of the growth is the area of 125.77. If the price falls down lower than 123.65, this scenario will be cancelled.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF currency pair continues moving inside the descending channel, the structure of the price movement is similar to that of Euro. The target of the fall is the area of 0.9490 - 0.9460, one can consider selling Franc form the current levels with the tight stop. If the price grows up higher than 0.9590, this scenario will be cancelled. We recommend to increase the amount of short positions only after the price breaks the level of 0.95.

USD/CAD

Canadian Dollar continues moving inside the descending trend. The pair is expected to be corrected towards the channel’s upper border, where one can consider selling it with the tight stop. The target of the fall is the area of 0.9645. We recommend to increase the amount of short positions only after the price breaks the level of 0.9830. If the price grows up higher than 1.0030, this scenario will be cancelled.

NZD/USD

New Zealand Dollar is moving according to the forecast, the price is testing the ascending channel’s lower border. The RSI indicator is still testing the channel’s lower border. The price is expected to start moving upwards from the current levels. One can consider buying the pair with the tight stop, the target of the growth is the area of 0.8220.